气候变化对我国7种植物潜在分布的影响

The potential effects of climate change on the distributions of 7 plants in China

关键词:  濒危植物  气候变化  CART模型  空间分布格局

Key words:  endangered plant  climate change  CART model  spatial distribution pattern

摘要:

利用CART(分类和回归树)模型及A2和B2气候情景，模拟分析气候变化对瘿椒树、岩高兰、延龄草、星叶草、天麻、蝟实和秃杉分布范围及空间格局影响。结果显示：气候变化下，就目前适宜分布范围，瘿椒树呈增加趋势，其它植物呈缩小趋势；就新适宜及总适宜分布范围，蔚实、延龄草和瘿椒树呈增加趋势，星叶草和岩高兰呈减小趋势，天麻和秃杉在1991～2020年到2051～2080年时段呈增加趋势，之后下降。天麻将向西部和西南一些高海拔区域扩展，秃杉、蔚实、星叶草和延龄草将向西部高海拔及东北部一些高纬度区域扩展，瘿椒树将向东北部和北部一些高纬度区域扩展；岩高兰将向东北部一些高纬度区域扩展，到2051～2080年时段在我国适宜分布范围消失。这些植物适宜分布范围与年均气温和降水量变化相关性并不一致，一些植物适宜分布范围与年均气温和降水量变化相关系数不显著（P＞0.05）；一些植物适宜范围与年降水量和年均气温变化多元线性回归关系决定系数较小。这说明气候变化下，除瘿椒树外，这些植物目前适宜分布区范围将缩小，新适宜范围主要向高纬度和高海拔区域扩展。

Abstract:

The effects of climate change on the distributions of Falsepistache（Tapiscia sinensis），Black Crowberry（Empetrum nigrum），Wakerobin（Trillium tschonoskii），Field Circaeaster（Circaesaster agrestis），Gastrodia（Gastrodia elata），Beauty Bush(Kolkwitzia amabilis)and Flous Taiwania（Taiwania flousiana）in China were analyzed using the CART(classification and regression tree)model and climate change scenarios of A2 and B2. The results showed that climate change in China would cause an increase in the current distribution of Falsepistache，and it would cause a decrease in current distribution of other plants. The new distribution or total distribution region of Beauty Bush，Wakerobin or Falsepistache would increase，while Field Circaeaster or Black Crowberry would decrease，and that of Gastrodia or Flous Taiwania would increase from periods of 1991-2020 to periods of 2051-2080，then they would decrease，and they were higher in A2 scenario than that in B2 Scenario. New suitable regions of these plants would expand towards high altitude regions or latitude regions. And the distribution regions of Gastrodia would mainly expand towards high altitude regions，while Flous Taiwania，Beauty Bush，Field Circaeaster or Gastrodia would expand towards high altitude regions or latitude regions，and Falsepistache would expand towards high altitude regions or northeast latitude regions，while Black Crowberry would expand towards high altitude regions or latitude regions，and the distribution regions of that would lost from periods of 2051-2080 to periods of 2081-2100. Additionally，under climate change，changing in current distribution，new distribution or total distribution region of the plants did not consistently change with changing in annual mean air temperature or precipitation in China，and the changing in current distribution，new distribution or total distribution region of some plants were poor related with changing in annual mean air temperature or precipitation in China. And the linear regression relationship between changing in the plants distribution and annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation in China were different for different plants，while the linear regression relationship between changing in the plants distribution and annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation in China were poor. The results indicated that climate change in China would cause decrease in the current distribution region of the animals except Falsepistache，and it would cause expand the distribution of the plants towards high altitude or high latitude regions. And the relationship between changing in the plants distribution and annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation in China were different.