气候变化对桂林植物物候的影响

Influence of climate change on plant phenology in Guilin

关键词:  气候变化  植物物候  线性倾向估计法  Mann Kendall法  桂林

Key words:  climate change  plant phenology  linear trend estimation method  Mann Kendall method  Guilin

摘要:

利用线性倾向估计、Mann Kendall突变检测等方法，对桂林气候(1951～2009年)和3种植物物候(1983～2009年)的趋势变化特征进行了分析，并探讨了物候期与气温、日照、降水等气象因子的相关性及其对主要气候影响因子的响应情况。结果表明：在当地气候变化背景下，桂林市植物物候期发生了不同程度的变化，春季物候期提前，秋季物候期推迟，绿叶期延长；平均气温是影响植物物候期最为显著的气象因子，气温每增高1 ℃，春季物候平均提前5 d左右，秋季物候平均推迟8 d左右，绿叶期延长约27 d；春季物候和绿叶期的突变一般发生在气温突变之后，但秋季物候期突变与其影响月份气温的突变并无关系。以上分析说明植物物候对气候变化响应比较敏感，通过分析气候和植物物候变化的规律，掌握气候对当地植物物候的可能影响，可为农业生产、生态环境监测和评估等提供理论依据。

Abstract:

Mathematical statistics such as linear trend estimation，Mann Kendall method etc.were applied to investigate tendencies of climate change during 1951-2009 and phenology of three kinds of plant in 1983-2009，as well as the correlations with temperature，sunshine duration and precipitation，and afterwards，were discussed the tendencies of the responses of phenological events to the main climatic factors influencing，together with their differences in abrupt change in tendencies and linkage. The results showed that the phenological events were changed in varying degrees along with local climate change，the plant phenology tended to have spring phenology advance and autumn phenology delay，but the leaf growing stage was prolonged. Average temperature was a climate factor greatly affecting the phenology，an increase of average temperature by 1 ℃ would 〖JP〗advance spring phenology by 5 d，delay autumn phenology by 8 d，but prolonged the leaf growing stage by 27 d. Generally，the sudden change in spring phenology and the green leaf growing stage appeared after that in temperature，and the curve after abrupt point showed temperature rise for spring phenological events happened in advance and longer green leaf stage. But there was not relationship between Jump change of autumn phenology and abrupt point for air temperature. As a result，the phenological response to climate change was remarkable，and it would provide theoretical basis for agricultural production and environmental protection.