| 摘要: |
| 预测外来入侵植物的潜在入侵范围以及对不同环境的适应性,能够为外来植物入侵提供预警和预防。该文通过实地调查肿柄菊(Tithonia diversifolia)在云南的入侵范围,以及收集世界其他地区分布点,结合12个关键环境变量,利用MaxEnt模型对肿柄菊适生区范围和环境限制因子进行分析。结果表明:在世界范围适生区分布格局中,肿柄菊在云南无高适生区,次适生区总面积占全省总面积的3.58%,中适生区占32.90%,低适生区占42.80%,非适生区占20.72%; 有扩散风险的区域主要为中适生区,普遍分布于云南省26° N以南地区; 实地调查肿柄菊分布最高海拔2 200 m,在海拔1 000～1 500 m分布最为密集,而模型预测显示海拔2 000 m以下都适宜肿柄菊生长,且500～2 000 m为最适宜海拔范围; 在12个环境变量中年降雨量、人类足迹、年均温、海拔等环境变量对肿柄菊的分布起到了最重要的作用。综上结果表明,目前在云南肿柄菊零星的分布点已到达其潜在分布区的边缘,但已入侵区域还远小于潜在可入侵区域。为了预防肿柄菊在我国南方地区大面积扩散带来危害,有必要对其入侵和扩散态势进行监测。 |
| 关键词: 外来入侵植物, 肿柄菊, MaxEnt模型, 环境变量, 扩散 |
| DOI：10.11931/guihaia.gxzw202003016 |
| 分类号:Q948 |
| 文章编号:1000-3142(2021)05-0789-10 |
| Fund project:国家自然科学基金(31560092); 云南省森林植物培育与开发利用重点实验室开放基金项目( ZZCX2016-10); 云南省技术创新人才培养资助项目(2019HB066)[Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31560092); Open Fund of Yunnan Key Laboratory of Forest Plant Cultivation and Utilization(ZZCX2016-10); Talent Training Program on Technical Innovation of Yunnan Province(2019HB066)]。 |
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| Risk evaluation of Tithonia diversifolia dispersal in Yunnan Province,China |
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CHEN Jian1,2, WANG Sihai1,2*, ZHU Feng3, YUAN Chunming 1,2
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1. Yunnan Academy of Forestry and Grassland, Kunming 650201, China;2. Yunnan Key Laboratory of Forest Plant Cultivation and Utilization /
State Forestry Administration Key Laboratory of Yunnan Rare and Endangered Species Conservation and Propagation, Kunming 650201,
China;3. College of Geography and Ecotourism, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China
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| Abstract: |
| Predicting the potential range of invasive alien plants and their adaptabilities to different environments could give early warning and prevention measures. The diverse bioclimatic types in Yunnan province would provide rich potential habitats for alien invasive plants. Tithonia diversifolia, an alien plant invading in tropical and sub-tropical regions of Yunnan, has quickly dispersed in recent years. In order to evaluate the risk of its invasion in different geographical environments, we investigated the invasion situation of T. diversifolia in Yunnan Province, and collected the distribution samples in the world. Using this species' distribution coordinates and 12 main environmental variables, we analyzed the suitability of T. diversifolia to different environments and the dominating environmental factors by MaxEnt model. The results were as follows: Yunnan had not high-suitability area in the worldwide pattern of T. diversifolia's distribution, meanwhile sub-, medium-, low-, un-suitability area accounted for 3.58%, 32.90%, 42.80% and 20.72% of the provincial area, respectively; Medium-suitability area was the main risk region, which widely interspersed in the south of 26° N in Yunnan; Field investigation showed T. diversifolia mainly distributed at the altitude of 1 000-1 500 m and its upper altitudinal limit was 2 200 m, while the model predicted that the altitude region below 2 000 m was suitable, especially between 500-2 000 m; The most important environmental factors affecting distribution of T. diversifolia were annual precipitation, human footprint, annual average temperature and altitude. In conclusion, although T. diversifolia has reached sporadically its suitable geographical limiting boundary at present, the invaded area is far less than the potential suitable area. It is necessary to keep monitoring T. diversifolia's dispersal dynamic in the future, so that hazard caused by T. diversifolia could be controlled in time. |
| Key words: alien invasive plant, Tithonia diversifolia, MaxEnt model, environmental variables, dispersal |
