未来气候变化对四种木姜子地理分布的影响

郑维艳<sup>1</sup>; 曹坤芳<sup>1; 2*</sup>

引用本文:	郑维艳, 曹坤芳.未来气候变化对四种木姜子地理分布的影响[J].广西植物,2020,40(11):1584-1594.[点击复制]
	ZHENG Weiyan, CAO Kunfang.Impact of future climate change on potential geographical distribution of four Litsea species in China[J].Guihaia,2020,40(11):1584-1594.[点击复制]

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未来气候变化对四种木姜子地理分布的影响
郑维艳¹, 曹坤芳^1,2*
1. 广西大学林学院, 广西森林生态与保育重点实验室, 南宁 530004;2. 广西大学亚热带农业生物资源保护与利用国家重点实验室, 南宁 530004

摘要:

该文利用最大墒模型(Maxent)和地理信息系统(ArcGIS 10.3)软件对中国木姜子属(Litsea)四种资源植物在我国当代、未来(2061年—2080年)气候条件下的潜在分布区进行预测,并对其适宜区进行分析和划分。结果表明:山鸡椒(Litsea cubeba)适宜区广泛分布在长江以南区域,在未来时段2061年—2080年两种(RCP2.6、RCP8.5)二氧化碳浓度情景下适宜区面积分别减少4.9%和0.5%; 毛豹皮樟(L. coreana)适宜区主要分布在中亚热带及北亚热带区域,分布相对偏北,其在未来2061年—2080年两种二氧化碳浓度情景下适宜区面积分别增加5.6%和4.5%; 华南木姜子(L. greenmaniana)适宜区主要分布在我国南亚热带区域; 毛叶木姜子(L. mollis)适宜区广泛分布在亚热带区域。这两种树种在未来气候RCP2.6情景下适生面积减少1.0%和3.3%,在RCP8.5情景下减少5.6%和8.3%。上述结果说明木姜子属不同种由于生态习性差异对未来的气候变化的响应不尽相同,对这些植物引种栽培须考虑气候变化的影响。

关键词: Maxent模型, 木姜子属, 气候变化, 分布格局, 适宜区

DOI：10.11931/guihaia.gxzw201904020

分类号:Q948.15

文章编号:1000-3142(2020)11-1564-11

基金项目:国家重点研发计划子课题(2016YFC0502101-04); 广西重点研发计划项目(桂科AB16380254); “八桂学者”人才项目(C33600992001)[Supported by a Subproject of the National Key Research and Development Program(2016YFC0502101-04); Guangxi Key Research and Development Program(AB16380254); Guangxi Bagui Scholar Talent Program(C33600992001)]。

Impact of future climate change on potential geographical distribution of four Litsea species in China

ZHENG Weiyan¹, CAO Kunfang^1,2*

1. Guangxi Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Conservation, College of Forestry, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004,China;2. State Key Laboratory for Conservation and Utilization of Subtropical Agro-Bioresources, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004,China 1. Guangxi Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Conservation, College of Forestry, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004,China; 2. State Key Laboratory for Conservation and Utilization of Subtropical Agro-Bioresources, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004,China

Abstract:

In this paper, the maximum entropy model(Maxent)and geographic information system(ArcGIS 10.3)softwares were used to predict the potential distribution areas of four Litsea species under the current and future climate conditions of China(2061-2080), and to analyze and classify their suitable habitats. The results were as follows: Litsea cubeba was widely distributed in the south to the Yangtze River in China, and under the future climate with two(RCP2.6, RCP8.5)carbon dioxide concentrations, during 2061—2080 the suitable area for its distribution was reduced by 4.9%and 0.5%, respectively; L. coreana was mainly distributed in central and northern subtropical regions of China, and under the climate scenarios with two carbon dioxide concentrations, in 2061—2080 the total suitable area would be increased by 5.6% and 4.5%, respectively; L. greenmaniana was mainly distributed in the south subtropical regions of China; L. mollis was widely distributed in the subtropical region. Under the future climate RCP2.6 scenarios, the suitable area of the two species would be shrinked by 1.0% and 3.3%, respectively, and under the climate RCP8.5, the suitable area of the two species would be shrinked by 5.6% and 8.3%, respectively. These results reveal that due to different ecological requirements, Litsea species will have different distributional responses to the future climate. The introduction and cultivation of Litsea species should consider the influences of climate change.

Key words: maximum entropy model, Litsea, climate change, distribution pattern, suitable area