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| 气候变化对澳洲坚果在中国潜在生态适宜种植区的影响 |
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潘尹茜雪1, 王雪昭2,3,4, 李晓娜2,4*, 张淋1, 王雷光5
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1. 西南林业大学 水土保持学院,昆明 650224；2. 西南林业大学 生态与环境学院,昆明 650224；3. 香格里拉普达措国家公园碧塔海高原湿地生态系统云南省野外科学观测研究站,昆明 650233；4. 云南澄江抚仙湖森林生态国家长期科研基地,云南 玉溪 651100；5. 西南林业大学 园林园艺学院,昆明 650224
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| 摘要: |
| 气候变化深刻地影响着植物分布格局，澳洲坚果（Macadamia sp.）属于热带至亚热带山地植物，具有极高的经济价值和显著的生态价值，气候变化背景下预测其潜在生态适宜区对我国山区经济发展和水土保持具有重要意义。该研究结合MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件，基于气候、地形和土壤等环境因子和澳洲坚果（Macadamia sp.）在中国现有分布数据，筛选出影响澳洲坚果在我国分布的关键因子，并探讨2040s、2060s、2080s和2100s 4个未来时期澳洲坚果在我国潜在适生区分布格局及变化。结果表明：(1)MaxEnt模型可以极好地模拟澳洲坚果在中国的潜在分布。(2)年均气温、年均降水量、等温性、年均温变化范围是影响澳洲坚果分布的关键因子。(3)各气候情景下，澳洲坚果在云南省分布面积最大，其次是广东和广西等东南沿海地区。(4)3种未来气候情景下随时间变化澳洲坚果潜在适生区总面积逐渐缩减，适生区内部破碎化程度逐渐升高，总体质心偏移幅度均较小。该研究结果进一步明确了澳洲坚果生态适宜区在中国的分布格局，可以为制定澳洲坚果的规模化种植规划提供科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 澳洲坚果，潜在适生区，MaxEnt模型，气候变化，中国 |
| DOI：10.11931/guihaia.gxzw202505018 |
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| 基金项目:云南省重大科技专项(202202AD080010)；西南林业大学科研启动基金(111610)。 |
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| The impacts of climate change on the potential ecologically suitable plantation area of Macadamia sp. in China |
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PAN Yinxixue1, WANG Xuezhao2,3,4, LI Xiaona2,4*, ZHANG Lin1, WANG Leiguang5
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1. College of Soil and Water Conservation, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China; 2. College of Ecology and Environment, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China; 3. Shangri-La Potatso National Park Bita Lake Plateau Wetland Ecosystem Observation and Research Station of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650233, China; 4. Yunnan Chengjiang Fuxian Lake Basin Forest Ecosystem National Long-Term Scientific Research Base, Yuxi 651100, Yunnan, China; 5. College of Landscape Architecture and Horticulture Science, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China
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| Abstract: |
| Climate change has exerted profound impacts on the distribution patterns of plant species. Macadamia sp., a tropical to subtropical montane plant, possesses considerable economic and ecological significance. Understanding its potential ecologically suitable habitats under future climate change scenarios is of great importance for promoting sustainable economic development and soil and water conservation in mountainous regions of China. This study integrated the MaxEnt model with ArcGIS technology to analyze current distribution data of Macadamia sp. in China, along with environmental variables including climatic, topographic, and soil factors. Key environmental determinants influencing its distribution were identified, and the potential distribution patterns of suitable habitats were projected for four future time periods: the 2040s, 2060s, 2080s, and 2100s. The results were as follows: (1) The MaxEnt model demonstrated high accuracy in simulating the potential geographic distribution of Macadamia sp. in China. (2) Annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, isothermality, and temperature annual range were identified as the most influential environmental variables shaping its distribution. (3) Across all climate scenarios, Yunnan Province consistently exhibited the largest area of suitable habitat, followed by the southeastern coastal provinces such as Guangdong and Guangxi. (4) Under all three future climate scenarios, the total area of suitable habitats gradually decreased over time, accompanied by increasing fragmentation, while the spatial shifts of the overall centroid remained minimal. These findings provided a comprehensive understanding of the potential ecological distribution patterns and requirements of Macadamia sp. in China, offering a scientific basis for the development of large-scale, climate-adaptive cultivation strategies. |
| Key words: Macadamia sp., potentially suitable area, MaxEnt model, climate change, China |
