气候变化条件下苦参在我国潜在分布区的预测分析

Prediction of potential distribution of Sophora flavescens in China under climate change

关键词:  苦参, MaxEnt, 气候变化, 生态因子, 潜在分布区

Key words:  Sophora flavescens, MaxEnt, climate change, ecological factor, potential distribution area

摘要:

为了解气候变化情景下苦参在中国的潜在分布区变化,探讨生物气候因子与苦参适宜分布格局的关系。该文通过收集苦参的地理分布点并结合19项生态因子,运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(ArcGIS)对末次盛冰期、当前气候、未来气候三种气候情景下苦参在我国适生区的分布格局进行模拟,并分析影响苦参生长的主导生态因子。结果表明:(1)当前气候条件下,最暖季度平均温度(bio10)、最湿季度降水量(bio16)是影响苦参分布的主导气候因子。(2)苦参的适宜生境占我国国土总面积的35.90%,高适生区主要分布在我国800 mm等降水量线与400 mm等降水量线之间的地区。(3)在末次盛冰期至未来气候情境下,苦参在我国的适宜生境面积逐渐减少,呈现递减的趋势,且整体有向高纬度地区移动的趋势。(4)当前气候条件下苦参的适宜生境面积较末次盛冰期减少0.3%,未来气候条件下苦参的适宜生境面积较当前气候减少0.75%。全球气候变暖对苦参潜在分布区具有一定负面影响,造成苦参的适宜生境缩减、实际生态位变窄,一定程度上不利于苦参的生长。该研究结果为苦参的野生保育及人工栽培的合理布局提供了理论依据。

Abstract:

In order to understand the changes of potential distribution of Sophora flavescens in China under the climate change and to explore the relationship between bioclimatic factors and the suitable distribution pattern of S. flavescens, we investigated the distribution pattern of S. flavescens in China under the three climate scenarios(last glacial maximum, current climate, and future climate), and analyzed the dominant ecological factors affecting the growth of S. flavescens with Maximum Entropy Model(MaxEnt)and Geographic Information System(ArcGIS)by collecting the geographical distribution points of S. flavescens combining with 19 ecological factors. The results were as follows:(1)Under the current climate conditions, the average temperature in the warmest quarter(bio10)and the precipitation in the wettest quarter(bio16)were the dominant climate factors affecting the distribution of S. flavescens.(2)The suitable habitat of S. flavescens accounted for 35.90% of the total land area of China. The optimum areas of S. flavescens were mainly distributed between the 800 mm isopyet and the 400 mm isopyet in China.(3)From the last glacial maximum to the future climate, the suitable habitat area of S. flavescens in China gradually decreased, and showed a trend of moving to high latitude.(4)The suitable habitat area of S. flavescens under the current climate was 0.3% less than that in the last glacial maximum, and the suitable habitat area of S. flavescens under the future climate was 0.75% less than that in the current climate. In conclusion, global warming plays a negative role in the potential distribution area of S. flavescens, and leads to the reduction of suitable habitat and the narrowing of actual niche of S. flavescens, which is not conducive to the growth of S. flavescens to a certain extent. The results of this study provide the theoretical basis for the rational distribution of wild conservation and artificial cultivation of S. flavescens.