气候变化情景下少花蒺藜草在中国的分布区变化

张小丽<sup>1; 2</sup>; 陈泽柠<sup>1; 2*</sup>; 武正军<sup>1; 2</sup>

引用本文:	张小丽, 陈泽柠, 武正军.气候变化情景下少花蒺藜草在中国的分布区变化[J].广西植物,2023,43(4):658-669.[点击复制]
	ZHANG Xiaoli, CHEN Zening, WU Zhengjun.Distribution area changes of Cenchrus spinifex in China under climate change scenarios[J].Guihaia,2023,43(4):658-669.[点击复制]

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气候变化情景下少花蒺藜草在中国的分布区变化
张小丽^{1, 2}, 陈泽柠^{1, 2*}, 武正军^{1, 2}
1. 珍稀濒危动植物生态与环境保护教育部重点实验室(广西师范大学), 广西桂林 541006;2. 广西师范大学生命科学学院, 广西桂林 541006

摘要:

少花蒺藜草(Cenchrus spinifex)是我国的入侵种植物之一,严重影响我国的畜牧养殖业和生态环境。为了预测未来气候变化情景下,少花蒺藜草的适生分布区变化,该研究基于MaxEnt模型,利用103个少花蒺藜草的地理分布数据和19个气候环境因子,分析预测在RCP 4.5、RCP 8.5两种未来气候变化情景下,2050s和2070s时段在我国范围内少花蒺藜草的适生分布区。结果表明:(1)少花蒺藜草的当前适生分布区占研究区域面积的4.00%,主要分布于内蒙古自治区、吉林省、辽宁省三省(区)接壤的东北地区。(2)未来少花蒺藜草的适生分布区面积有所增加,其中中等适生区所占面积扩张程度最大,达到38.26%。(3)年平均气温、温度季节性变化标准差、最湿季降水量是影响少花蒺藜草分布的主要气候因子。(4)未来少花蒺藜草的分布质心总体向西移动。综上认为,目前在中国范围内,少花蒺藜草的已入侵区域还远小于潜在可入侵区域,未来还可能向我国干旱半干旱区进一步扩散,为防止少花蒺藜草在我国北方地区大面积扩散带来的危害,未来需要重点关注对其的预防措施和入侵态势。该研究结果为我国防治入侵种植物提供重要的理论依据和防治手段。

关键词: 少花蒺藜草, 气候变化, MaxEnt模型, 分布预测, 分布质心

DOI：10.11931/guihaia.gxzw202108060

分类号:Q948

文章编号:1000-3142(2023)04-0658-12

基金项目:国家自然科学基金(31760623)。

Distribution area changes of Cenchrus spinifex in China under climate change scenarios

ZHANG Xiaoli^1,2, CHEN Zening^1,2*, WU Zhengjun^1,2

1. Key Laboratory of Rare and Endangered Species of Flora and Fauna Ecology and Environmental Protection of the State Ministry of Education, Guangxi Normal University, Guilin 541006, Guangxi, China;2. College of Life Sciences, Guangxi Normal University, Guilin 541006, Guangxi, China

Abstract:

Cenchrus spinifex is one of the invasive plant species in China, which seriously affects the animal husbandry and ecological environment in China.In order to predict the change of suitable distribution area of C. spinifex under future climate change scenarios, based on the MaxEnt model, this study used 103 geographical distribution data of C. spinifex and 19 climatic and environmental factors to analyze and predict the suitable distribution area of C. spinifex in China under two climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in the 2050s and 2070s. The results were as follows:(1)The current suitable distribution area of C. spinifex occupied 4.00% of the study area, which was mainly distributed in Northeast China borderline by Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Liaoning.(2)Under the two future climate change scenarios, the suitable distribution areas for each grade of C. spinifex will expand to a certain extent compared with the current, and the medium suitable areas will expand the most, reaching 38.26%.(3)Annual mean temperature, standard deviation of seasonal temperature variation, and precipitation in the wettest season were the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of C. spinifex.(4)In the future, the distribution centroid of C. spinifex will generally move westward. The above results indicate that the current invaded areas of C. spinifex in China are far smaller than the potential invaded areas, and it may further spread to the arid and semi-arid regions in China. In order to prevent the harm caused by the widespread spread of C. spinifex in northern China, we need to focus on its preventive measures and invasion situation in the future. The results of this study provide important theoretical basis and control methods for the prevention and control of invasive plants in China.

Key words: Cenchrus spinifex, climate change, MaxEnt model, distribution prediction, distribution centroid